Joe Cavatoni, Chief Market Strategist for North America at the World Gold Council (WGC), stated that gold has recently continued to consolidate around $3,300 per ounce, indicating that the market is still waiting for clear signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations.

He also warned that last week’s sudden announcement by the United States to impose tariffs on copper imports serves as a reminder to investors that gold may face tariff adjustments in the future, and nothing is certain.

Cavatoni stated that while the Trump administration’s announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports to the United States was surprising, it was not entirely unexpected. “In terms of tariffs, for those critical or strategic minerals that are vital to U.S. defense, energy, and other future areas, anything is possible,” he said. “This administration has clearly stated that addressing dependence on foreign critical minerals or other goods is fundamental, so this move is significant.”

Regarding gold, Cavatoni stated that from a duty perspective, the World Gold Council considers the current gold situation to be relatively optimistic. “But keep in mind that anything is possible. And even though the tariff deadline has been postponed to August, it is only a delay,” he said. “I believe the government’s attitude toward the sourcing and acquisition of minerals is very serious.”

When asked if he expects changes in gold tariff policies, Cavatoni replied that, at least for now, there does not seem to be any indication that the government is taking action.

“Anything is possible, but the signals we are receiving now indicate that gold is seen primarily as a currency metal rather than a critical mineral,” he said. “Gold is not a major player in economic areas such as defense and telecommunications applications; it is used more for savings and plays a role in investment portfolios and central bank reserves. Therefore, neither this administration nor previous administrations have listed gold as a critical mineral.”

However, Cavatoni stressed that the physical flow of gold between countries could still pose potential issues, which could prompt the Trump administration to adopt tariff measures in response. “When metals cross borders, they can trigger logistical challenges, so we are closely monitoring potential tariff developments,” he stated. However, the details of gold tariffs remain uncertain, such as whether they include raw materials or finished gold products and whether calculations are based on wholesale or import prices, among other issues. He added: “Nothing is set in stone, so the situation could still change.”

Regarding price trends, Cavatoni stated that gold is consolidating around $3,300, indicating that market participants do not have a clear understanding of several key factors affecting gold.

He said: “I believe the market is struggling to evaluate the flow of information. It is not easy to accurately judge the impact that tariffs and trade negotiations (or the lack thereof) may bring.”

“From a tactical standpoint, gold price fluctuations are driven by momentum and opportunity cost,” Cavatoni explained. “If the Fed adjusts interest rates by the end of the year, the opportunity cost factor will be favorable for gold in the short term. However, from a tactical standpoint, people are anxious to judge whether momentum will lead to changes in gold prices.”

He stated that the World Gold Council’s view on the gold market leans more toward the global strategy level rather than the tactical level.

“We need to see some real fundamental changes to push gold beyond its current range of fluctuations,” he said. “So far this year, gold prices have increased by nearly 26%, which is significantly higher than the expected annual ROI of about 8%. Yes, there are reasons for the gold price increases, but at the moment I believe we will continue to wait until we have stronger and clearer signals to understand the actual direction of the economy, the Fed’s actions, and the future performance of the dollar and dollar assets. This is the key to pushing gold to break through the current range and achieve a strategic upside.”

Regarding the supply situation, Cavatoni stated that the latest data are generally consistent with the World Gold Council’s estimates.

“Currently, the production levels we are seeing are in line with our expectations, with annual growth rates remaining between 1% and 2.5%,” he stated. “While large mining companies are consolidating, they are still able to seize opportunities arising from rising gold prices, and their performance remains above overall sustainable cost levels.”

“At the moment, we are focused on the growth of small-scale artisanal mining,” he added. “Whether there are problems in this sector requires our vigilance. We are currently taking steps to regulate this market. The supply of gold from small-scale artisanal mining represents about 20% of the total supply.”

Cavatoni also spoke about the high demand for gold from central banks around the world.

“Over the last three or four years, gold purchases by central banks have accounted for about 20-25% of global annual gold consumption,” he stated. “The trend of central banks continuously buying gold has lasted for 15 years.” He cited a World Gold Council survey of 73 central banks, in which 95% of central banks indicated that gold will play a key role and 50% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months.

“This indicates that central banks must ensure the stability of asset performance when evaluating their reserves. We expect them to remain active in the gold market,” he said. “We will publish the Gold Demand Trends report in a few weeks, which will include the total amount of gold purchased by central banks in the second quarter. At that point, it may be found that this was another strong quarter for central bank gold demand.”