Investors of all stripes have flocked to gold in recent months as the safe-haven asset has gained ground amid widespread economic uncertainty, and one expert says the price of the precious metal will likely need to rise further.
“There is this perception that gold is a crowded trade, that it is over-owned,” said Daniel Ghali, Director of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, in an interview Wednesday with BNN Bloomberg.
“We actually think gold looks technically overbought, but it is actually under-owned… the US dollar is losing some of its status as a store of value, gold is benefiting from that, and the outlook for gold from here is exceptionally strong.”
Ghali argued that despite gold’s recent rally, which pushed it to record levels, there are few investors with large gold reserves looking to sell the commodity anytime soon, which should maintain upward pressure on prices.
“Who really has a lot of gold to sell? It’s not very clear to me, which tells you that selling exhaustion seems imminent to us, and participation in gold is so low that I have a hard time seeing how it will trade significantly lower,” he said.
While still near all-time highs, gold prices have seemingly plateaued over the last two months, and Ghali argued that this is due to the relative easing of global trade tensions.
But the economic and financial impact of US tariffs and general trade policy remains a concern for investors, who will likely turn to gold again if uncertainty returns.
“The East fears currency depreciation; that is what drives them to buy gold. The West fears recession and stagflation; that is what drives them to buy gold. The de-escalation of trade has eased these fears and, in turn, the buying impulse that pushed gold prices higher earlier this year has faded,” he said.
“But participation right now is so low that it’s really hard to see who has more to sell, and there are so many catalysts on the horizon… regarding tariffs, Fed credibility, the interest rate outlook, and so on. It’s hard to see how participation in gold will not increase from current levels.”